I've been thinking about this graphic for a little while.  Something I have had in a deck, not exactly "confidential" or "proprietary"  :).

It's a reminder that there are a lot of companies trying to find their way through a very small aperture.  No doubt, it's a simplification of a numerous factors.  At a high-level, it speaks to me, however.

In this picture 50-100 companies are winnowed to 5-7 and then again into 3.  Of course, reality can be even tougher with 200, 300, 400 or more companies competing for the leading position.   As was the case with the Social Coupon industry where Groupon and LivingSocial dominate amidst reports of hundreds of local-coupon-social buying shutdowns.

Obsessing about scarcity and competition at the expense of thinking about real user needs is not a good idea.  Yet, one can't ignore the cold hard facts in this image.  Scores of small companies with tremendous ambition are fighting their way to obsolescence.

And, a few make it through and do great things. 

Getting through to the other side, ostensibly achieving success is a result of many factors.  One factor is Vision.

Vision is the ability to foresee changing contexts and then arbitraging these changes to an advantage.

One arbitrage bet we're making is that real-time and dynamic location information sharing will become as common as text messaging or photo sharing.  It will become something we know to be predominanty useful, rarely risky. 

Location sharing is already happening.  Check-ins and other forms of "static" location sharing abound in the mobile ecosystem.  Consumers blithely attach their location to their tweets, their photos and their status updates.  And, hundreds of thousands, perhaps a million, parents track their families with tracker apps.

There is an element of creepiness expressed by consumers when they consider what "revealing" their real-time location to another user could do to their notion of privacy and personal space.  Certainly, safety and privacy are important issues, but we have covered this ground before when introducing email and e-commerce, for example, to the masses.  Over time a new technology's risk profile flips from risk dominant to benefit dominant.

This is just one part of our vision, there are others.  Getting throug the aperture with innovation and new user experiences is probably more art than science (perhaps 55% art and 45% science). 

Reminding oneself about the realities of competition, market dynamics and the shifting sands of customer desire and demand helps keep vigilance, diligence and vision in focus. 

While the graphic portrays a bleak story, it's not.  Working in early-stage is truly exciting.  The work is challenging and meaningful.  The results can lead to great riches, but it's the impact that matters: making a difference in people's lives.